AI Trade Rebounds as Anthropic IPO Filing Restores Confidence

Technology stocks are rallying after Anthropic’s long-awaited initial public offering filing restored investor confidence in the artificial intelligence trade, with Asian markets leading the charge on Tuesday and US futures holding steady ahead of the opening bell. The filing, which revealed ballooning revenues for the first half of the year and a $112bn cash pile, appears to have answered the most pressing question that has weighed on the sector for months: whether AI demand is actually translating into measurable sales.

The market response was immediate and broad. South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi jumped nearly 5 per cent at its peak before settling 3 per cent higher, propelled by chipmakers that investors expect to benefit most from rising AI infrastructure spending. SK Hynix gained 5.2 per cent and Samsung rose 4.2 per cent, both set to report quarterly results later this week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1.7 per cent, with SoftBank, a major OpenAI investor, climbing as much as 6.7 per cent, though the stock remains down by more than a quarter over the past month. The Nasdaq 100 closed 1.1 per cent higher on Monday, and pre-market trading on Tuesday pointed to further gains for Micron and Sandisk, while Europe’s ASML edged up 0.6 per cent.

The rally reflects a shift in sentiment after a period of intense skepticism. Investors had grown increasingly worried about the market’s willingness to fund hundreds of billions of dollars in AI capital expenditures without clear evidence that the labs building the models could turn their technology into profitable businesses. Anthropic’s filing appears to have provided that evidence, at least in part. Florian Ielpo, multi-asset portfolio manager at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, said the revenues disclosed in the filing were “probably the clearest evidence so far that AI demand is translating into actual sales,” prompting renewed confidence across the sector.

But the move is best understood as a relief rally rather than a fundamental re-rating. Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas, described it as an AI “relief rally” on Asian markets, noting that recent deals by SpaceX and Meta provided “a confluence of positive news.” The market is effectively pricing in the possibility that Anthropic’s successful listing will unlock a new wave of capital for the AI ecosystem, and investors are positioning for the companies most likely to benefit from that outcome.

That logic is most visible in Asia, where analysts are identifying the direct beneficiaries of an Anthropic IPO. Kieron Poon, investment director of Asian equities at Aberdeen Investments, pointed to Korean memory players and Taiwanese companies tied to the Google and Nvidia supply chains, arguing that the obligations and commitments Anthropic discloses in its filing will flow directly to those suppliers. SK Hynix reports results on Wednesday, followed by Samsung on Thursday, and those numbers will be scrutinised for signs that AI-driven demand is holding up beyond the initial enthusiasm.

The broader implication is that the AI trade remains highly sensitive to narrative. A single filing has been enough to reverse a month of losses in some of the sector’s largest names, underscoring how little fundamental visibility investors actually have into the long-term economics of AI. The rally may prove durable if Anthropic’s numbers continue to impress and if the companies building the underlying infrastructure can demonstrate that their own revenue growth is not merely a function of one another’s spending. But the volatility of the past month, and the sharp swings in response to one document, suggest that the market is still trying to calibrate what the AI supercycle is actually worth.

For now, the immediate takeaway is that confidence has been restored, at least temporarily. The next few days of earnings from SK Hynix and Samsung will provide a more concrete test of whether the optimism is justified. If those results confirm the strength implied by Anthropic’s filing, the relief rally could turn into a sustained re-rating. If they disappoint, the market will quickly remember why it was skeptical in the first place.